Rolling horizon ARIMA forecasting produces accurate wind speed forecasts in Sao Vicente.
The case study shows combining wind forecasting and energy storage enhances diesel fuel savings.
Wind curtailment could be largely reduced with the help of accurate forecasting methods and energy storage.
Annual wind energy penetration could increase from the current 30.4%–38% in Sao Vicente.
For electric grids that rely primarily on liquid fuel based power generation for energy provision, e.g. one or more diesel gensets, measures to allow a larger fraction of intermittent sources can pay-off since the displaced is high cost diesel powered generation. This paper presents a case study of Sao Vicente, located in Cape Verde where a particularly high fraction of wind capacity of 5.950 MW (75% of the average demand) is installed, with diesel gensets forming the dispatchable source of power. This high penetration of intermittent power is managed through conservative forecasting and curtailments. Two potential approaches to reduce curtailments are examined in this paper: 1) an improved wind speed forecasting using a rolling horizon ARIMA model; and 2) energy storage. This case study shows that combining renewable energy forecasting and energy storage is a promising solution which enhances diesel fuel savings as well as enables the isolated grid to further increase the annual renewable energy penetration from the current 30.4% up to 38% while reducing grid unreliability. In general, since renewable energy forecasting ensures more accurate scheduling and energy storage absorbs scheduling error, this solution is applicable to any small size isolated power grid with large renewable energy penetration.
- Isolated grid;
- Wind speed forecasting;
- Rolling horizon;
- ARIMA model;
- Monte Carlo simulation;
© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.