Estimating future balancing power requirements in wind–PV power system


Monte Carlo model for balancing power requirements estimation.

System-level wind and PV power production simulation.

System-level wind and PV power forecast error simulation.

Net system uncertainty simulation model.


This paper presents a general model—based on the Monte Carlo simulation—for the estimation of power system uncertainties and associated reserve and balancing power requirements. The proposed model comprises wind, PV and load uncertainty, together with wind and PV production simulation. In the first stage of the model, wind speed and solar irradiation are simulated, based on the plant disposition and relevant data. The second stage of the model consists of wind speed, PV power and load forecast error simulation, based on the associated statistical parameters. Finally, both wind and PV forecast error are combined with the load forecast error, resulting in the net uncertainty. This net uncertainty, aggregated on a yearly level, presents a dominant component in balancing power requirements. Proposed model presents an efficient solution in planning phase when the actual data on wind and PV production is unavailable.


  • Balancing power;
  • Wind power;
  • PV power;
  • Stochastic process;
  • Monte Carlo simulation

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