Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system


We present a new framework to evaluate impacts of climate change in hydropower.

An interaction among regional climate, water inflows modeling, and optimal dispatch is showed.

Relevant results for distinct configurations of the system and climate conditions are presented.

This paper can help to define where to build hydro and to design a reliable system for the future.

New topics related to this multidisciplinary research are discussed.


Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system’s capability to supply load.


  • Renewable generation;
  • Multi-stage stochastic optimization;
  • Climate change effects;
  • Hydro-thermal scheduling;
  • Water inflows

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