Identification-based prediction of wind park power generation

Highlights

This paper deals with the output power prediction for an off-shore wind park.

Wind direction domain is quantized depending on the wind park layout.

Wind deficiency factors for each turbine and for each direction quant are identified.

Effective wind speed links the power of each wind turbine with wind mast measures.

A wind park simulator uses the deficiency factors to predict park output power.

Abstract

This paper approaches the problem of output power prediction for an off-shore wind park. To this end, a so called wind deficiency factor for each turbine and for each wind direction sector is identified using past data. This identification is done by using the effective wind speed concept that can establish a link between output power of each wind turbine and meteorological mast measures in terms of wind speed and direction. Based on forecast wind speed and direction, a wind park simulator that uses the previously-identified deficiency factors, computes future output power time evolutions. Numerical simulations show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords

  • Wind farms;
  • Short-term prediction;
  • Estimation;
  • System identification

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