The results reveal that in the Aegean and Marmara region, which accounts for nearly 75% of the country’s installed wind capacity, 2014 was a low year with wind speeds 5 to 10% below normal while 2015 was close to average, aside from elevated wind speeds in the first quarter.
Similar to 2015, Q1 2016 experienced above average wind speeds by as much as 20% across most of the country, but largely outside of this major wind operations area. These dramatic shifts in wind speeds highlight the clear requirement to understand wind production variability prior to major investment.
Turkey is one of the largest and fastest growing onshore wind markets in Europe, according to Vaisala. Its total installed wind energy capacity reached 4.7 GW in 2015, up from 3.7 GW in 2014, and the government’s “Vision 2023” plan calls for capacity to exceed 20 GW by 2025. The auction expected in Q2 of this year for 3 GW of wind generation capacity was 14-times oversubscribed during the preliminary license application period. EMRA (the Energy Market Regulatory Authority) has also announced another 2 GW bidding process for October 2016, which will continue to mobilize near-term growth.
“Our report demonstrates that the regions with Turkey’s highest annual average wind speeds, do not necessarily guarantee the highest wind power generation quarter-to-quarter or year-to-year,” said Nihat Hunerli, EMEA Regional Manager at Vaisala. “There remains significant variability throughout the year and climate conditions can cause highs or lulls for sustained periods of time. For prospective developers and investors this equates to a risk of underperformance and the resulting drop in forecasted revenue.”
Vaisala’s Wind Performance Maps of Turkey can be viewed here.