Probabilistic load flow with detailed wind generator models considering correlated wind generation and correlated loads


In this work, 3PEM and 5PEM methods have been applied for computing the CDFs of reactive power absorbed by the wind generators in the presence of load and wind generation uncertainties.

For calculating the reactive power absorption, four WGS models have been used in this paper.

Both PEM methods are capable of computing the CDFs of any output accurately in the presence of uncertainties with and without any correlation among them.

The computation burden required by these two methods is significantly less as compared to that required by the MCS study.


The enhancement in the penetration of intermittent generation necessitates the need to include uncertain behaviour in the conventional power flow programs. In this paper, four different wind generation models have been incorporated in probabilistic load flow for calculating the probability distribution of the reactive power consumed by the wind generators for three different scenarios; i) uncorrelated wind and uncorrelated loads ii) uncorrelated wind and correlated loads and iii) correlated wind and correlated loads The above mentioned scenarios have been implemented in probabilistic load flow using point estimate method in the IEEE-118 bus test system and accuracy of the results have been validated by comparing these results with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation studies.


  • Probabilistic load flow;
  • Point estimate method;
  • Wind generators

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