Time series prediction using artificial wavelet neural network and multi-resolution analysis: Application to wind speed data

Highlights

Wavelet neural network with predictability analysis is employed for wind prediction.

Multi-resolution analysis and Hurst exponent permit to establish the predictability.

Predictability analysis permits to optimize the WNN structure.

Abstract

The aim of this work is to develop a prediction method for renewable energy sources in order to achieve an intelligent management of a microgrid system and to promote the utilization of renewable energy in grid connected and isolated power systems. The proposed method is based on the multi-resolution analysis of the time-series by means of Wavelet decomposition and artificial neural networks. The analysis of predictability of each component of the input data using the Hurst coefficient is also proposed. In this context, using the information of predictability, it is possible to eliminate some components, having low predictability potential, without a negative effect on the accuracy of the prediction and reducing the computational complexity of the algorithm. In the evaluated case, it was possible to reduce the resources needed to implement the algorithm of about 29% by eliminating the two (of seven) components with lower Hurst coefficient. This complexity reduction has not impacted the performance of the prediction algorithm.

Keywords

  • Wind speed forecasting;
  • Adaptive wavelet neural network;
  • Multi-resolution analysis

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